![]() We won’t see as much on the pavement, but it’ll still be messy driving later Tuesday night. There are still some important differences in the computer models, but I think I have a reasonable handle on how this will play out: The heaviest snow will fall across the southeastern half of the area, with between 3 and 5 inches of snow expected on elevated surfaces. Over time, snow will cool the pavement and a slushy accumulation will begin there. Keep in mind that snow accumulation will occur very quickly on the grass and elevated surfaces, such as decks, patio furniture, and barbecues, but will initially melt on pavement since the surface temperature is well above freezing. However, once we lose that radiation and temperatures cool Tuesday night, we’ll see a changeover to all snow, and it could become moderate to heavy at times. Solar radiation (even with the clouds) will prevent snow accumulation during the daylight hours on Tuesday. Highs will only reach the low to mid 40s. We start our Tuesday dry, then light rain and possibly some wet snow will develop during the afternoon. Northwest winds will blow at 5 to 10 mph. Showers will end after the frontal passage, so we’ll be dry Monday night, and temperatures drop into the mid 30 by Tuesday morning. Southwest wind at 10 to 20 mph will shift to the west after the front passes by. Scattered light rain showers will also develop this afternoon ahead of the front. ![]() Temperatures will start dropping across the western part of our area during the afternoon, while reaching the low to mid 60s in the east. Ahead of the front, morning sunshine will boost temperatures to near 60 degrees by noon. Will climb into the mid 60s toward the end of the week.A cold front - the front edge of a much colder air mass – will approach our area later today. High temperatures will remain well below normal values in the midĦ0s today and Tuesday as we expect highs in the 50s. Where instability is more favorable for storms. Severe weather looks like it will remain south of the cwa this week This rainfall will push rivers higher with perhaps some localizedįlooding possible, something we`ll definitely keep an eye on. Ensemble qpf mean paintsĪnother eight tenths or so across the southern cwa south of I-96. Take a similar track toward Lower Michigan. Wednesday looks like the brightest day with some sunshine as highĬlouds will increase Thursday ahead of the Friday low which looks to Rain willĭiminish Tuesday night as the low moves east. Surface instability with the Tuesday low will be south of the state,Īlthough some elevated instability may creep up as far north as I-ĩ6, so we are keeping the mention of isolated thunder. Rivers there should be able to accommodate the rain better. Rivers on the eastern part of the cwa saw less rain and so ![]() Given the inch plus of rain we say Friday/Saturday over the westernĬwa, we`re likely to see significant rises on rivers over western ECMWFĮnsemble mean is around eight tenths of an inch along/south of I-96. H8 front remains just south of I-96 throughout the day and thisīaroclinic zone will be the focus for rain development. Saturate the lower atmosphere by 12z Tuesday leading to rain. Strong isentropic lift on the 295k sfc will quickly The ECMWF and GFS are a similar take on the track, strength, andĪrrival of the Tuesday low so confidence is high that we`re going to The first will move in Tuesday and the second system arrives Friday. We have two systems that will produce abundant rainfall this week. Here are some of our highest rainfall reports from yesterday evening! The heaviest swath of rain fell mainly across southwest MI, with around 1.5” as the general highest amounts. ![]()
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